Tudor Predictions 2024: Black Bay GMT and Pro Updates

In 2018, Tudor and Rolex both released ‘Pepsi’ GMTs: dual timezone watches with bi-color red-and-blue bezels. For Rolex, this was the expected return of an icon. For Tudor, this was brand new territory. The Black Bay GMT introduced Tudor’s in-house GMT movement, the caliber MT5652. Used to this day in the Black Bay GMT and Black Bay Pro (pictured above), the MT5652 is a rock-solid automatic, COSC-certified, “Flyer” GMT movement. Its biggest downside (apart from some purportedly-resolved issues with the date wheel), is its thickness. The caliber MT5652 is 7.5mm tall, resulting in some considerable overall case thicknesses. The Black Bay GMT and Black Bay Pro both stand just below 15mm tall. This height is very apparent thanks to Tudor’s slab-sided case design, particularly for the 39mm Black Bay Pro. As we see Tudor’s movement manufacture Kenissi continue to develop newer, more robust, thinner calibers, the prospect of an GMT update feels more and more plausible. Furthermore, 2024 is the 70th anniversary of the Rolex GMT-Master. Will Rolex and Tudor do another coordinated GMT release? If/when we see some slimmer dual-timezone watches from Tudor, what might each respective model look like?

An Updated Tudor Black Bay GMT

Image Source: Tudor

With movement talk out of the way, what could an updated, slimmer Black Bay GMT look like? First and foremost, the watch is due for a T-fit clasp, and it's not alone (*cough* Black Bay 58 *cough*). In a 2023 interview with Teddy Baldassare, Tudor’s Cole Pennington (formerly of Hodinkee) indicated that T-fit will eventually find its way to every Black Bay bracelet. A new generation of Black Bay GMT without T-fit would be a confounding disappointment. Beyond that, I suspect Tudor will do away with the Black Bay GMT’s crown tube: something we saw them do with the core Black Bay and 31/36/39/41 models. Personally, I like the crown tube, but it seems to be on the outs. Last year’s opaline dial answered the prayers of Rolex nerds worldwide; I hope to see this dial carry over to future iterations of the Black Bay GMT. I don’t suspect we’ll see new bezel colorways anytime soon, but just imagine a slimmed-down, METAS-certified ‘Coke’ Black Bay GMT. That watch would break the internet. 

An Updated Tudor Black Bay Pro

Image Source: Hodinkee

The Black Bay Pro has a T-fit clasp, tubeless crown, and colorless steel bezel. Aside from a slimmer case profile, how can Tudor iterate upon this design? To me, they nailed it and shouldn’t change a thing, but that’s not very exciting. A polar white dial, something that Vincent Deschamps speculated on last year, would be sensational. Since 2018, it’s hard to tell where Rolex draws the line with Tudor’s design borrowings. A Tudor Black Bay Pro ‘Polar’ would certainly encroach on the sales of the Rolex Explorer II ‘Polar’, but if Rolex greenlit the ‘Pepsi’ Black Bay GMT (directly modeled after the ‘Pepsi’ GMT-Master), who’s to determine the limits here? The simple answer is Rolex: that’s why “prediction” articles should more realistically be called “wishlist” articles. Whatever Rolex/Tudor’s reasoning for or against a polar dial might be, the colorway would be a perfect introduction to a slimmed-down generation of the Black Bay Pro.

How Likely is a Tudor GMT Update in 2024?

I have no scientific way to gauge the likelihood of these things happening, especially within a specific year. That said, Tudor will, at some point, update their in-house GMT movement. Marking the movement’s 6th birthday, a 2024 update is definitely in the cards. A new in-house GMT movement will certainly be slimmer, eventually finding its way into both the Black Bay GMT and Black Bay Pro. Any updated versions of these watches will be thinner than the current versions. If they aren’t updated at the same time, I suspect the Black Bay GMT will receive the nod from Tudor as it’s four years older than the Black Bay Pro. With 2024 being the 70th anniversary of the Rolex GMT-Master, we could see another coordinated GMT release from Rolex and Tudor. Who knows, it might even tide over ravenous watch enthusiasts until Tudor updates the Black Bay Pro. What do you think Tudor will do this year? Let us know in the comments below.