U.S. Tariff on Swiss Watches Could Change the Market Overnight

While I was in Geneva at Watches and Wonders, seeing a ton of exciting new releases from Rolex and Tudor, an important piece of news broke: the U.S. will impose a 31% tariff on Swiss exports to the U.S.

Chatter on forums and Instagram started within minutes. What does this mean for the watch market—and for U.S.-based collectors like you?

A Quick Disclaimer

First off, I want to clarify a few things. I don’t work for Tudor or Rolex, but I do import products for Everest from around the world—including into the U.S., the U.K., and the EU. These importation and exportation taxes affect our prices.

Historically, the U.S. has had the lowest tariffs and duties. Meanwhile, the U.K. and EU typically charge higher duties on imported goods.

I’ve been running this business for over fourteen years. Before that, I ran other businesses. I studied economics in college, did well, and I keep a close eye on the financial markets. That said, I’m not a financial advisor or an economist. The following is a high-level overview based on experience—not official investment or policy advice.

Estimating the Impact

Let’s make a few basic assumptions about business costs and markups to understand how this tariff might impact end consumers. Nobody knows the exact numbers inside Rolex’s operation. But based on educated guesses, here’s how pricing might work for a standard Rolex model—before and after the proposed tariff.

Assumptions (educated guesses only):

- Rolex applies a markup of roughly 2.5x to 6x when selling to Authorized Dealers. We’ll assume 4x here.

- Authorized Dealers need to maintain a 30–40% margin. We’ll assume 35% in this example.

- The watch: a stainless steel Submariner with a retail price of $10,400.

- We’ll assume the 31% tariff applies to Rolex’s cost of goods sold (COGS), and this cost increase gets passed down.

Before Tariffs

After Tariffs (31% applied to Rolex COGS)

As with most financial changes, one thing is highly likely: if these tariffs remain in place, Swiss watches sold in the U.S. will go up in price. We don’t know by how much, and Rolex is known for long-term planning. Maybe they preemptively imported enough stock to delay price hikes—but that seems unlikely, especially given how sudden this announcement was.

What the Swiss Government Is Saying

I found this quote from the Swiss Federal Council (Switzerland’s seven-member executive governing body) via the Wall Street Journal:

“The calculations of the U.S. government are not clear to the Federal Council,” it said.

Switzerland denied having an unfair trade surplus with the U.S., noting that 99% of U.S. goods are imported into Switzerland duty-free. The Council also stated that escalating trade tensions is not in Switzerland’s interest and that they are not planning to retaliate.

Will Rolex Move Production to the U.S.?

Image Source: WatchTime Magazine

I doubt it. Relocating Rolex production to the U.S. would be immensely expensive and unnecessary. Rolex already has extensive manufacturing infrastructure in Switzerland, and they play the long game. These tariffs could easily be reversed by the next administration—or even this one.

A Shift in Supply?

If the tariff sticks, Rolex may choose to reduce the number of watches allocated to the U.S. altogether. They could increase supply in regions like the Caribbean, Canada, the EU, or Mexico—places where American travelers might find more favorable pricing.

At a certain point, it may even make financial sense to travel abroad just to buy a Rolex.

Bottom Line

If the 31% Swiss export tariff remains, U.S. Rolex prices will almost certainly rise. How much? No one knows yet. But if you get that long-awaited call from your AD, this might be the best time to say yes, hop in the car, and pick up your new watch—before the price climbs even higher.