Rolex Market Update: What the Cooldown Means for Collectors
The Rolex market has been on a wild ride over the past few years. After reaching record highs in 2022, prices have cooled significantly. However, even as the frenzy subsides, Rolex remains one of the most stable and desirable luxury watch brands out there. The pre-owned Rolex market is still up substantially over the last five years. This should come as no surprise; they've been killing it for over a century now.
Using Chrono24’s pre-owned sales data, we’ll look at Rolex’s overall performance and dive into three models—the GMT-Master II 126710BLRO Pepsi, the white-dial Daytona 116500LN, and the Submariner 14060M—to uncover what these trends mean for various collectors.
Chrono24 has a wealth of first-hand sales data, making it a solid pricing reference. However, I notice that its average prices tend to be a bit higher than the broader market. You can treat these prices as applicable for nice examples, or consider discounting them by about 5-10%.
Big Picture
Figure Source: Chrono24
Over the past year, Rolex prices have declined -4.61%, aligning with the broader watch market’s -4.14% drop, per Chrono24's indexes.
The five-year picture, however, provides a more comprehensive story. The Rolex market is up +29.01% during that period, outpacing the overall watch market’s +23.71% growth. Unsurprisingly, Rolex is a major leader in the industry: resilient even amidst a market correction. With that in mind, let’s take a look at three key references.
Rolex GMT-Master II 126710BLRO ‘Pepsi’
- November 2019: $17,337
- Peak (February 2022): $29,144 (+68% from 2019)
- October 2024: $20,094 (+16% from 2019, -31% from peak)
The GMT-Master II ‘Pepsi’ is a case study in supply and demand. Rolex has reported difficulties producing red-and-blue ceramic bezel inserts: bad news for one of the brand’s most iconic and desireable models. The hard-to-obtain ‘Pepsi’ surged during the pandemic, climbing +68% from its pre-pandemic average to a peak of $29,144 in February 2022. While the market correction has brought it down -31% from that high, the Pepsi still sits +16% above its 2019 value.
Rolex GMT-Master II 126710BLRO 'Pepsi' on Everest Curved End Rubber Strap
The ‘Pepsi’ GMT 126710 has even posted modest growth over the past year (+1.0%). Its collectability makes it one of the most resilient Rolex watches on the market.
Rolex Daytona 116500LN White Dial
Rolex Daytona 116500LN on Everest Curved End Racing Leather Strap
- November 2019: $22,625
- Peak (February 2022): $46,940 (+107% from 2019)
- October 2024: $28,166 (+24% from 2019, -40% from peak)
As one of the most hyped Rolex models of the last five years, the recently-succeeded Daytona ref. 116500 saw dramatic price fluctuations. Its average price more than doubled from $22,625 in 2019 to $46,940 at the height of the market in 2022. However, the correction has been equally significant, with prices falling -40% from their peak. Still, the Daytona remains +24% above its 2019 value.
Like the ‘Pepsi’ GMT, the last-gen Daytona’s correction feels more like a deflation of a speculative bubble rather than a loss of status. Let’s keep in mind that this watch still commands a serious premium over its $14,800 MSRP.
Rolex Submariner 14060M
Image Source: Analog:Shift
- November 2019: $7,561
- Peak (July 2022): $11,829 (+56% from 2019)
- October 2024: $9,531 (+26% from 2019, -19% from peak)
The Submariner 14060M is a very different watch from the prior two. As such, its price history tells a different story. Unlike the Daytona or Pepsi GMT, this neo-vintage diver wasn’t swept up in the same speculative frenzy. It peaked in July 2022 at $11,829, a +56% increase from its 2019 value, but has since cooled to $9,531, down -19% from the peak. (Again, Chrono24's prices feel a bit high; you can get a nice one of these closer to $8,000).
What sets the 14060M apart is its stability. It remains +26% above its pre-pandemic value, showing that neo-vintage Rolex models are getting the love they deserve, particularly from those who enjoy watches more than investing in watches.
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