Breaking Down Rolex’s Submariner Production—What Collectors Need to Know

Rolex’s new book includes production numbers for every Submariner, Sea-Dweller, and Deepsea reference ever made (with some deep-cut exceptions). This inclusion came as a massive surprise to enthusiasts, as Rolex is notoriously secretive, particularly when it comes to production and availability. 

Following this unexpected turn of events, Rolex nerds are breaking out their calculators and running the numbers: how many Submariners are made per year? How many Submariners does each AD receive per year? To what extent is Rolex actually ramping up production?

I’d like to address these questions and explore what publicly-available production numbers mean for a company that's perennially shrouded in mystery. To keep myself from writing a book of my own, and to respect the exclusivity of the production numbers published by Rolex and Wallpaper*, we're going to restrict ourselves to the past three generations of Submariner, sticking to the common black bezel (LN) variants of each.

Submariner Date Production

*NOTE: The current-production references (126610 and 124060) were released in April of 2020, ostensibly meaning they've been in production for four years and five months. I figure that the time it took to edit and publish this book may cancel out those five months; I simply divided the total by four. Feel free to do your own math here; you'll see a similar result.

Submariner (No Date) Production

*See note above.

A Steady Increase in Production

Rolex Submariner Ref. 116610 on Everest Curved-End Rubber Strap

The first thing that jumps out from the data is the clear upward trend in overall production: something Rolex has been very adamant about. Over the past three generations, Rolex has steadily ramped up its Submariner output, both for the Date and No-Date models. For example, the Submariner Date 16610 (1988–2010) had an average annual production of around 29,391 units, while the current reference, the 126610 (2020–present), shows an average annual output of 44,332 units (despite being launched during a global pandemic). Because this reference is still in production, this average is obviously subject to change.

Rolex is putting their money where their mouth is. While the brand remains notoriously difficult to obtain at retail, the data confirms that Rolex is working to meet demand. We’ll just have to wait and see regarding the impact of their upcoming production facilities.

Date vs. No-Date

It should come as no surprise that the Submariner Date models continue to dominate in terms of production quantity. No matter the opinions of die-hard enthusiasts, most people want a date on their watch. For the current generation, the Submariner Date 126610 has already produced 177,328+ units, while the No-Date 124060 has produced only 82,382+ units. This almost 2:1 ratio has been consistent across multiple generations.

Date Haters rejoice; you’ve chosen the categorically rarer Sub. But you already knew that. These numbers solidify what we’ve vaguely known to be true about the Date-to-No-Date ratio, and as I mentioned in my initial article on this topic, “what we might see is a gradual recalibration of prices, especially for the rarer references.”

The Broader Implications of Publicly Available Production Data

Make no mistake, by publishing these numbers, Rolex is interacting directly with its enthusiast community. Historically, Rolex has kept production details shrouded in secrecy, indirectly fueling speculation and inflating market perceptions of scarcity. Let’s never forget that a pre-owned ‘Hulk’ Submariner, of which there are 228,710 examples, sold for $95k back in 2021. Now, with this data on the table, collectors have more concrete information to work with—and this could change the market dynamics for both vintage and modern Submariners.

Submariners Per Authorized Dealer + Final Thoughts

Image Source:  Ahmed Seddiqi & Sons

I mentioned at the top that I’d address the “how many Submariners does each AD get?” question. Unfortunately, I think it’s impossible to answer. Sure, we can run an average that tells us each AD (of which there are ~1440) receives 30 Submariner Dates and 14 No-Dates each year, but that’s just not true. The largest Rolex AD by volume–Ahmed Seddiqi & Sons’ boutique at The Dubai Mall (pictured above)–surely receives more watches than any AD in a landlocked American state, for example.