Are Rolex Wait Lists Getting Shorter?

You may have heard rumblings of reduced wait times for hard-to-obtain Rolex models. While there’s no concrete data with which to substantiate these rumblings, there is concrete data that’s relevant to the discussion. The watch market is softening before our eyes (from astronomical highs), and while Rolex is far from being reactive/bound to market trends, supply and demand is referred to as a “law” for a reason. With lower overall demand (again, compared to astronomical highs), we may be perceiving higher supply for a number of reasons that we're about to discuss. Before getting into the current state of Rolex wait times, let’s get on the same page regarding “wait lists”.

Is The Rolex Wait List Real?

Before speaking on the current state of Rolex wait times, we should establish some common ground on the reality of “wait lists”. Simply, Rolex ADs do not have “wait lists” as you might imagine (or hope) them to. There is no linear queue of interested customers that ADs work their way down. Instead, customers register interest in one or more watches, ADs catalog this interest, and once allocated those watches, they choose who to give “the call” to based on customer portfolios. The more watches you’ve purchased with a given AD, the stronger your portfolio is. The more established a collector you are (i.e. you’re unlikely to turn around and flip the watch), the stronger the portfolio is. From what I understand, these are two of the largest factors when ADs establish priority, but there are almost certainly more that exist.

Are We Seeing More Rolex Allocations In General?

Again, there’s no publicly-reported number to point to here. However, if you frequent any Rolex forums, subreddits, or group chats, you’ve probably noticed a disproportionate increase in “I got the call” posts within the past year or so. (How’s that for anecdotal evidence?).

There are many potential reasons for this perceived increase in allocations. Some theorize that, at the height of the watch market in spring ‘22, hordes of people registered interest on the off chance that they’d receive an allocation and make a quick buck. Now that second hand prices are softening (see below), these “interested” parties are no longer so interested and ADs simply transfer the allocation to someone else. It’s worth noting that that “someone else” – someone who actually wants to buy and wear the watch – is more likely to post in the aforementioned forums and subreddits, adding to this perception of “more” allocations.

While that could be a mechanism by which we’re seeing more allocations in enthusiast circles, it’s undoubtedly a result of a larger market trend. As I said in my recent article Are We In The Golden Age of Watch Collecting?, 

“The watch market (as defined by ChronoPulse) is down 18.73% over the past two years . . . But let’s zoom out for a moment. We are two years removed from the hottest watch market of all time. According to the same index, the watch market (as defined by ChronoPulse) is up 23.43% over the past five years.”

Are Rolex Wait Times Decreasing?

While we’re slowly moving toward pre-pandemic pricing and getting a more accurate sense of "true" demand in the watch market, and that could have a positive impact on average wait times due to a smaller pool of eligible customers, we’re far from the readily-available and even discounted AD experience of decades past. Unfortunately, the reality remains that, if it’s steel, you’re probably going to wait a while.

But there's hope for further improvement! Rolex recently submitted its planning application for a massive $35 million production facility in Bulle, Switzerland. While that facility won't be complete until 2029, the Crown elected to open multiple temporary production facilities in the meantime, the earliest of which will be operational by the end of the year. Only time will tell how these production facilities will affect average wait times, but I'm keeping my eyes peeled.

What do you think of Rolex wait times? Have you noticed an increase in allocations? Have you recently gotten "the call"? Let us know in the comments below, and if you're interested in personalizing your Rolex, check out our selection of curved-end rubber straps.