Rolex's New Book Just Changed the Submariner Market Forever

For decades, Rolex collectors have relied on educated guesses when it came to production numbers. Thanks to years of research by dealers, auction houses, and diehard enthusiasts, many of these guesses are fairly accurate. But at the end of the day, those numbers were just that—guesses.

That’s all changed.

Rolex has just published a new book dedicated to the Submariner, and it includes something the Rolex world–vintage and modern–has never seen before: exact production numbers for every single Submariner, Sea-Dweller, and Deepsea reference ever made. Let that sink in for a second. From the earliest vintage references to the modern models sitting in boutiques right now, we finally have hard data. 

Rolex claims that these production numbers are "estimates", but as you'll see, they're pretty darn specific. For all intents and purposes, these numbers should be considered the gold standard.

Why This Matters

Rolex Submariner ref. 6200 (just 303 produced) Image Source: Hairspring

The release of this book is a massive moment for anyone with even a passing interest in Rolex watches. The Submariner is one of Rolex’s most iconic models, worn and beloved by professional divers and people who take it off to go swimming. It’s been produced in dozens of variations over the decades, all varying in their availability and perceived rarity, which means the market has always been trying to assess the production numbers of these pieces.

Before now, we worked with approximations. If you owned, say, a Submariner reference 5512, you’d know based on secondary market availability and pricing that it was produced in smaller numbers than the reference 5513, but you wouldn’t have exact figures. Collectors generally understood that certain models were rarer than others, but no one could say for sure just how big the gap was, nor the actual volume of production. That’s an important point to keep in mind: production numbers are different from ratios. We’ve long heard that “there are about X 5513s for every 5512,” but that doesn’t speak to the actual quantity of either reference.

Now, thanks to Rolex’s new book, we know the exact numbers. And in some cases, they’re pretty dramatic.

A Case Study: The 5512 vs. the 5513

Image Source: Charlie Dunne's excellent Collector's Guide on the Submariner 5512 on windvintage.com

Keeping with that example, let’s take a look at the 5512 and the 5513.

Both watches are nearly identical in appearance, with one key (visual) difference: the 5512 has four lines of text on the dial, while the 5513 only has two. The latter was introduced three years after the former as a more affordable offering, lacking chronometer certification. Historically, collectors have known that the chronometer-certified 5512 was produced in smaller quantities, but just how much smaller was always up for debate. Rolex has now confirmed the production numbers, and here’s the kicker: only 17,338 units of the 5512 were made, compared to a whopping 151,449 units of the 5513.

That’s nearly a 9-to-1 ratio.

This is the kind of information that, while not entirely surprising, sets things in stone. We now have the data to back up what collectors have been saying for years. The 5512 is significantly rarer than the 5513, and while that was generally understood before, having these figures officially documented gives collectors a whole new level of certainty when it comes to the value and scarcity of these pieces.

What Does This Mean for the Market?

Rolex Submariner 14060M (130,622 produced) Image Source: Analog:Shift

Here’s where things get interesting. Now that we have these official numbers, what’s next for the vintage Submariner market? (Modern, too, but mostly vintage).

In the short term, it’s hard to say exactly how things will play out. On one hand, knowing that certain models are far rarer than others could lead to an increase in demand and, naturally, prices. After all, collectors now have irrefutable proof that certain watches are harder to come by. 

On the other hand, the market may not react at all—at least not right away. This book still isn’t available in stores, after all. While the numbers are helpful, they aren’t shocking enough to completely overturn what collectors have already known. The 5512 was already priced higher than the 5513 before this book came out, and it may take time for these newly confirmed figures to truly impact the market.

But here’s what I think: over time, this book will be seen as a turning point. We’ve never had official production numbers like this for the Submariner, and I believe that collectors, dealers, and auction houses will begin to use this data as a cornerstone for assessing value. What we might see is a gradual recalibration of prices, especially for the rarer references.

A Turning Point for Collectors

Rolex Submariner ref. 126610LN (177,328 produced so far) on Everest Rubber Deployant Strap

In the end, this book marks a new chapter for the Submariner market, particularly the vintage Submariner market. For the first time, we’re working with solid, irrefutable facts rather than well-educated guesses. Whether it takes six months or six years, I believe we’ll look back on this book’s release as a pivotal moment in the history of Submariner collecting. The game has changed, and for those who live and breathe vintage Rolex, it’s a pretty exciting time to be involved.

Header Image Source: Rolex (left) and Menta Watches (right)